January News

I am thrilled to be able to wish you a Happy New Year! I can't believe it's already 2009. Where did 2008 go? Of course a tremendous amount has happened in the last 12 months.

Here is a look at the 2008 Vail Valley Real Estate Market in retrospect. This is an analysis of all residential transactions of all home types in all of Eagle County in 2008:

Click here to download hi-res version

As you can see in this chart, the best selling price range is below $500,000, which has always been the case historically. In 2009, that continues to be the norm. In 2008, the approximate average days on market for residential properties in Eagle County was about 78.

In comparison, my projections for 2009 show a much longer average marketing time of 140 days or more. And, I of course do not expect the average price of residential properties to increase by any means. In fact, my projection is that by the end of 2009, we will have seen a reduction in overall average price by as much as 30% and a reduction in sales volume of 50% or more. We are already seeing reductions at this level today and I expect things to continue or get slightly worse in the Vail real estate market.

A friend of mine who is one of the finest home builders in the Valley called me today to tell me he absolutely "must" sell his home as soon as possible. It is a beautiful home in Cordillera - over 5,000 square feet with 5 bedrooms, tremendous recreation space, incredible views and it is brand new - never lived in. The home is listed at $2,500,000 and is worth every penny. Could a buyer pick this home up for $1.5? I think it is more than likely. At $288 per square foot, you could not even build that house today.

I've talked about the softening of the Vail market in the last several newsletters, but now things are really getting serious. If you would like to be on the list of people who got in on a great deal in Vail and be able to look back 10 years from now and be glad you did, come see me. I'll show you the mountain for a few hours, and then make you a happy investor all in the same day!